INQUA 2301 sa: From Cores to Code: Data-model integration to improve reconstructions & forecasts of coastal change (IGCP 725)

The first in-person meeting of International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 725: ‘Forecasting Coastal Change’ took place from 21st to 27th October 2023 in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The scientific aim of this meeting was to improve the predictive capacity of numerical models to fore- and hind-cast coastal change through better integration of field/process and modelling communities.

Abstract

Coastal communities and ecosystems are prone to a range of geohazards, including sea-level rise, storms, subsidence, earthquakes and tsunamis, operating over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Combined, these drivers can result in substantial coastal change, which may cause significant damage to infrastructure, loss of life, economic hardship, and degradation of coastal ecosystems. A key scientific goal is the ability to accurately forecast coastal response, facilitating effective decision-making about how best to manage the coastal zone. Central to achieving this goal is the successful integration of geological expertise, robust data collection and analysis, and the application of numerical models to provide quantitative forecasts of the drivers and physical-system responses to coastal change, both spatially and temporally. Despite sharing common scientific goals, field/process geologists and numerical modellers often approach the same research question in different—and not always complementary—ways.

The workshop aimed to bring together scientists (with a particular focus on ECRs and DCRs) from cognate sub-disciplines of geology (e.g., geomorphologists, sedimentologists, stratigraphers, geoarchaeologists and geochemists) and modelling (e.g., process, sediment transport, morphodynamic, inundation, and coastal erosion) to engage in dialogue around integrating field and modelling approaches to coastal change. Given the location of the meeting in Southern Brazil, a particular focus of the scientific program and associated discussions was on sediment transport dynamics and the corresponding importance of data-model integration and best practices.

The IGCP725 field trips to Santa Catarina Island and nearby mainland beaches and coastal communities were developed to highlight and synthesise over two decades of coastal research at these sites.  The comprehensive field guide was created by project leader Chris Hein (USA), meeting host Antonio Klein (DCR; Brazil), and project contributors Guillherme Vierira da Silva (ECR/DCR; Brazil) and Andy Green (DCR; South Africa), who have been working at this location for nearly two decades. The detailed field manual highlights key methodological developments and geologic results and includes studies that demonstrate best practices for the integration of modelling and geologic research into coastal change spanning from days to millennia. Field trip stops were made to the Holocene prograded barriers of Tijucas and Pinheira and the dunes and estuary entrance at Guarda do Embau. The coastline of Ilha de Santa Catarina, where headland bypassing and overpassing could be observed, was visited, and participants were shown how longshore drift dynamics are creating coastal management challenges in the region around Ingleses and Jurere.

All meeting participants were provided a copy of the field guide and a thumb drive key with digital versions of the guide and all relevant publications.  We have since made the field guide publicly accessible on the project website (https://www.sfu.ca/igcp-725/Resources.html).  The headland bypassing workshop, developed and presented by a Brazilian scientist, included key examples from the Brazilian literature and placed those results into an international context through comparison with examples from Australia.

Project leaders:

• Jessica Pilarczyk, Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Canada
• Chris Hein, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Virginia, USA
• Matt Brain, Department of Geography, Durham University, UK
• Noelynna Ramos, National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Philippines
• Andy Green, Geological Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
• Annie Lau, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia